Serie APrediction Sassuolo — LecceSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
Sassuolo
Home
11th in table
2 — 3
✗ Lost
Lecce
Away
17th in table
Our Prediction
Sassuolo Win
match result
Odds
2.29
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.05
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.80
56% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +17.6%Sassuolo
1.71
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.42
goals/match
Lecce
0.71
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
15.2%
2–0
13.0%
1–1
10.8%
2–1
9.2%
0–0
8.9%
3–0
7.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
How can a mid-table team like Sassuolo outperform a struggling Lecce with just 0.7 goals per match? Sassuolo’s stronger attack and equally solid defense give them the edge in a tight Serie A battle. The model calculates a 61.3% chance of Sassuolo winning against a 43.7% implied probability from bookmakers, exposing market inefficiency. This advantage stems from Sassuolo's consistent form and home control. I back Sassuolo to win at 2.29 odds due to their offensive edge and defensive solidity. Main risk: Lecce’s unexpected defensive resilience forcing a draw.
Match information
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