Serie APrediction Sassuolo — LecceSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
Sassuolo
Home
11th in table
VS
Lecce
Away
17th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.29
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.05
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.80
56% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +17.6%Sassuolo
1.71
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.42
goals/match
Lecce
0.71
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
15.2%
2–0
13.0%
1–1
10.8%
2–1
9.2%
0–0
8.9%
3–0
7.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
How can a mid-table team like Sassuolo outperform a struggling Lecce with just 0.7 goals per match? Sassuolo’s stronger attack and equally solid defense give them the edge in a tight Serie A battle. The model calculates a 61.3% chance of Sassuolo winning against a 43.7% implied probability from bookmakers, exposing market inefficiency. This advantage stems from Sassuolo's consistent form and home control. I back Sassuolo to win at 2.29 odds due to their offensive edge and defensive solidity. Main risk: Lecce’s unexpected defensive resilience forcing a draw.
Match information
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