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Bundesliga

3 May, 17:30

Prediction SC Freiburg — VfL WolfsburgSunday, 3 May 2026 at 17:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

SC Freiburg

Home

8th in table

Pending

VfL Wolfsburg

Away

17th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.97

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

8th

Ranking

17th

1.4g/m

Avg attack

1.3g/m

1.7ag/m

Avg defence

2.1ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

SC Freiburg

49%

Draw

25%

VfL Wolfsburg

27%

Over 2.5 goals

1.87

53% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.97

51% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +7.9%

SC Freiburg

2.28

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.61

goals/match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.33

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

SC Freiburg+10% edge

Poisson

59%

Bookmaker

49%

Draw-5% unfavourable

Poisson

20%

Bookmaker

25%

VfL Wolfsburg-6% unfavourable

Poisson

21%

Bookmaker

27%

Most probable scores

2–1

9.4%

1–1

8.2%

3–1

7.1%

2–0

7.1%

2–2

6.2%

1–0

6.2%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

SC Freiburg's stable form contrasted with Wolfsburg's defensive struggles and relegation zone position suggests Freiburg will control the game. The Poisson model estimates Freiburg's win probability at 58.7%, higher than the implied 50.8% from odds, indicating value. I back Freiburg to win at 1.97, with Wolfsburg's defensive fragility being the key factor; main risk is a defensive draw. Stake: 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.97

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