LaLigaPrediction Sevilla — EspanyolSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 16:15
Sevilla
Home
18th in table
2 — 1
✓ Won
Espanyol
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
Sevilla Win
match result
Odds
2.11
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.96
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
Sevilla
1.63
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.92
goals/match
Espanyol
1.29
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.4%
2–1
9.2%
1–0
8.8%
1–2
7.3%
2–0
7.1%
0–1
7.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
A team in critical danger tends to press intensely and attack relentlessly despite defensive frailties, contrasting with a more relaxed opponent with modest offensive output. The model calculates a 45.2% win probability for the home side, slightly reflecting the odds, and highlights an inefficiency on the Over 2.5 goals bet at 55.8%, suggesting an open, high-intensity game. The verdict: home team victory at 2.11 due to their urgent need for points, with the main risk being a cautious away side limiting chances.
Match information
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