LaLigaPrediction Sevilla — EspanyolSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 14:15
Sevilla
Home
18th in table
VS
Espanyol
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.11
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.09
48% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
Sevilla
1.63
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.92
goals/match
Espanyol
1.29
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.4%
2–1
9.2%
1–0
8.8%
1–2
7.3%
2–0
7.1%
0–1
7.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
A team in critical danger tends to press intensely and attack relentlessly despite defensive frailties, contrasting with a more relaxed opponent with modest offensive output. The model calculates a 45.2% win probability for the home side, slightly reflecting the odds, and highlights an inefficiency on the Over 2.5 goals bet at 55.8%, suggesting an open, high-intensity game. The verdict: home team victory at 2.11 due to their urgent need for points, with the main risk being a cautious away side limiting chances.
Match information
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