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Ligue 1

3 May, 17:15

Prediction Strasbourg — ToulouseSunday, 3 May 2026 at 17:15

Name: Home Win Prediction — Strasbourg vs Toulouse
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Strasbourg

Home

8th in table

1 — 2

✗ Lost

Toulouse

Away

11th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

2.10

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

8th

Ranking

11th

1.6g/m

Avg attack

1.4g/m

1.3ag/m

Avg defence

1.4ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Strasbourg

27%

Draw

35%

Toulouse

38%

Over 2.5 goals

1.95

51% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.87

53% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +8.0%

Strasbourg

2.12

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.44

goals/match

Toulouse

1.32

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Strasbourg+29% edge

Poisson

56%

Bookmaker

27%

Draw-14% unfavourable

Poisson

21%

Bookmaker

35%

Toulouse-15% unfavourable

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

38%

Most probable scores

2–1

9.5%

1–1

9.0%

2–0

7.2%

1–0

6.8%

3–1

6.7%

2–2

6.3%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

The market undervalues Strasbourg's win at 2.10 odds, with an implied probability of 47.6%, while the Poisson model estimates 55.6%, revealing value. Strasbourg’s stronger attack and better defense create a favorable profile against a more vulnerable Toulouse side. The tactical setup favors Strasbourg pressing at home to secure their standing, while Toulouse shows less defensive intensity, explaining the model's edge. I back Strasbourg to win at 2.10 due to their offensive momentum and need for points. Main risk involves an unexpectedly strong defensive performance from Toulouse. Stake: 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 2.10

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