Premier LeaguePrediction Sunderland — Nottingham ForestFriday, 24 April 2026 at 21:00
Sunderland
Home
11th in table
0 — 5
✗ Lost
Nottingham Forest
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.75
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.02
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.68
60% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +9.3%Sunderland
1.33
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.28
goals/match
Nottingham Forest
0.94
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
13.7%
1–1
12.9%
0–0
10.3%
0–1
9.7%
2–0
9.1%
2–1
8.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Sunderland's defensive edge and stable mid-table position give them the upper hand against a struggling Nottingham Forest. The Poisson model shows a 45.6% win probability for Sunderland, significantly higher than bookmakers' 36.4%, indicating a profitable bet. The tactical approach of Sunderland controlling the game and forcing Forest into mistakes supports this prediction. I back Sunderland to win at 2.75, with risk if Forest scores early and forces an open game.
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