Premier LeaguePrediction Sunderland — Nottingham ForestFriday, 24 April 2026 at 19:00
Sunderland
Home
11th in table
VS
Nottingham Forest
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.75
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.02
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.68
60% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +9.3%Sunderland
1.33
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.28
goals/match
Nottingham Forest
0.94
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
13.7%
1–1
12.9%
0–0
10.3%
0–1
9.7%
2–0
9.1%
2–1
8.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Sunderland's defensive edge and stable mid-table position give them the upper hand against a struggling Nottingham Forest. The Poisson model shows a 45.6% win probability for Sunderland, significantly higher than bookmakers' 36.4%, indicating a profitable bet. The tactical approach of Sunderland controlling the game and forcing Forest into mistakes supports this prediction. I back Sunderland to win at 2.75, with risk if Forest scores early and forces an open game.
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