Premier League18 Apr, 16:30
Prediction Tottenham Hotspur — Brighton and Hove AlbionSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 16:30
Tottenham Hotspur
Home
VS
Pending
Brighton and Hove Albion
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.74
best odds
Very high
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Tottenham Hotspur
31%
Draw
25%
Brighton and Hove Albion
43%
Over 2.5 goals
1.69
59% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.36
42% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +27.3%Tottenham Hotspur
2.06
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.78
goals/match
Brighton and Hove Albion
2.73
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Tottenham Hotspur
Poisson
29%
Bookmaker
31%
Draw-7% unfavourable
Poisson
18%
Bookmaker
25%
Brighton and Hove Albion+9% edge
Poisson
52%
Bookmaker
43%
Most probable scores
2–2
6.6%
1–2
6.4%
2–3
6.0%
1–3
5.8%
2–1
4.8%
1–1
4.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a high-scoring game with an 84.8% chance of over 2.5 goals, far above bookmakers' 57.5%. This makes the over 2.5 goals bet a strong value play with high confidence.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date18 Apr, 16:30
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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