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Premier League

11 May, 19:00

Prediction Tottenham Hotspur — Leeds UnitedMonday, 11 May 2026 at 19:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Tottenham Hotspur

Home

17th in table

Pending

Leeds United

Away

14th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.77

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

17th

Ranking

14th

1.3g/m

Avg attack

1.3g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

1.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Tottenham Hotspur

54%

Draw

22%

Leeds United

24%

Over 2.5 goals

1.91

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.96

51% implied

∑Poisson Model

Tottenham Hotspur

1.78

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.23

goals/match

Leeds United

1.45

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Tottenham Hotspur-8% unfavourable

Poisson

46%

Bookmaker

54%

Draw

Poisson

23%

Bookmaker

22%

Leeds United+7% edge

Poisson

31%

Bookmaker

24%

Most probable scores

1–1

10.2%

2–1

9.1%

1–2

7.4%

1–0

7.0%

2–2

6.6%

2–0

6.3%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Tottenham Hotspur’s survival pressure sharpens their attack, outperforming Leeds despite similar scoring averages. The model signals value on Tottenham’s win at 45.5% probability, outperforming bookmaker odds that undervalue their urgency and home advantage. The verdict favors Tottenham to take vital points at 1.77, with Leeds likely to defend but struggle to win.

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Home Win

@ 1.77

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