Bundesliga18 Apr, 13:30
Prediction TSG Hoffenheim — Borussia DortmundSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:30
TSG Hoffenheim
Home
15th in table
VS
Pending
Borussia Dortmund
Away
4th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.04
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
LDDLL
Form (5)
WWWWW
15th
Ranking
4th
1.4g/m
Avg attack
2.1g/m
2.0ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
TSG Hoffenheim
39%
Draw
25%
Borussia Dortmund
36%
Over 2.5 goals
2.05
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.86
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +30.8%TSG Hoffenheim
1.73
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.31
goals/match
Borussia Dortmund
2.57
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
TSG Hoffenheim-14% unfavourable
Poisson
25%
Bookmaker
39%
Draw-6% unfavourable
Poisson
19%
Bookmaker
25%
Borussia Dortmund+20% edge
Poisson
56%
Bookmaker
36%
Most probable scores
1–2
7.7%
2–2
6.7%
1–3
6.6%
1–1
6.0%
2–3
5.8%
2–1
5.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model predicts a high-scoring game with a 79.8% chance of over 2.5 goals, much higher than the bookmakers’ 49%. This creates a strong value bet opportunity on over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.04.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date18 Apr, 13:30
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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