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Bundesliga

9 May, 13:30

Prediction TSG Hoffenheim — Werder BremenSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 13:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

TSG Hoffenheim

Home

5th in table

Pending

Werder Bremen

Away

15th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.55

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

5th

Ranking

15th

2.0g/m

Avg attack

1.2g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

1.8ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

TSG Hoffenheim

61%

Draw

20%

Werder Bremen

19%

Over 2.5 goals

2.02

50% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.82

55% implied

∑Poisson Model

TSG Hoffenheim

2.54

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.58

goals/match

Werder Bremen

1.04

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

TSG Hoffenheim+8% edge

Poisson

69%

Bookmaker

61%

Draw

Poisson

17%

Bookmaker

20%

Werder Bremen-6% unfavourable

Poisson

13%

Bookmaker

19%

Most probable scores

2–1

9.4%

2–0

9.0%

3–1

7.9%

3–0

7.6%

1–1

7.4%

1–0

7.1%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Hoffenheim’s attacking strength and better defensive record contrast sharply with Bremen’s struggles near relegation, making Hoffenheim clear favorites. The Poisson model shows a 69.3% chance of Hoffenheim winning, significantly above the bookmakers' 61%, highlighting market undervaluation. The recommendation is a Hoffenheim win at 1.55, with the main risk being Bremen’s defense holding firm for a draw.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.55

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