Serie APrediction Udinese — CremoneseSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
Udinese
Home
9th in table
VS
Cremonese
Away
18th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.01
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.84
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +11.0%Udinese
1.89
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.78
goals/match
Cremonese
0.89
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
11.7%
2–0
11.1%
1–1
10.4%
2–1
9.9%
3–0
7.0%
0–0
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
A compact and disciplined defensive block faces a limited attacking side, indicating control and efficiency for the home team. The Poisson model estimates a 60.8% chance of home victory, outperforming the bookmakers' 49.8%, showing a clear betting edge. I back the home win at 2.01 due to structural superiority and better offensive dynamics, with the main risk being a late equalizer from the opposition.
Match information
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