Serie APrediction Udinese — CremoneseSunday, 17 May 2026 at 15:00
Udinese
Home
9th in table
0 — 1
✗ Lost
Cremonese
Away
18th in table
Our Prediction
Udinese Win
match result
Odds
2.01
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.84
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +11.0%Udinese
1.89
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.78
goals/match
Cremonese
0.89
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
11.7%
2–0
11.1%
1–1
10.4%
2–1
9.9%
3–0
7.0%
0–0
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
A compact and disciplined defensive block faces a limited attacking side, indicating control and efficiency for the home team. The Poisson model estimates a 60.8% chance of home victory, outperforming the bookmakers' 49.8%, showing a clear betting edge. I back the home win at 2.01 due to structural superiority and better offensive dynamics, with the main risk being a late equalizer from the opposition.
Match information
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