Bundesliga18 Apr, 13:30
Prediction Union Berlin — VfL WolfsburgSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:30
Union Berlin
Home
13th in table
VS
Pending
VfL Wolfsburg
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
🔒
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.02
best odds
Moderate
Comparative Statistics
WLDDD
Form (5)
WDLLD
13th
Ranking
11th
1.0g/m
Avg attack
1.6g/m
1.5ag/m
Avg defence
1.6ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Union Berlin
44%
Draw
27%
VfL Wolfsburg
29%
Over 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
Union Berlin
1.13
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.59
goals/match
VfL Wolfsburg
1.46
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Union Berlin-15% unfavourable
Poisson
29%
Bookmaker
44%
Draw
Poisson
26%
Bookmaker
27%
VfL Wolfsburg+16% edge
Poisson
45%
Bookmaker
29%
Most probable scores
1–1
12.4%
0–1
10.9%
1–2
9.0%
1–0
8.5%
0–2
8.0%
0–0
7.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a total of 2.59 goals with a slight edge for under 2.5 goals at 52.1% probability. Given the cautious nature of the match, betting under 2.5 goals is a moderate confidence option with decent odds.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date18 Apr, 13:30
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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