LaLiga25 Apr, 16:30
Prediction Valencia — GironaSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 16:30
Valencia
Home
14th in table
VS
Pending
Girona
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.95
best odds
Low
Comparative Statistics
14th
Ranking
11th
1.1g/m
Avg attack
1.1g/m
1.5ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Valencia
46%
Draw
27%
Girona
26%
Over 2.5 goals
1.97
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.97
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
Valencia
1.42
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.55
goals/match
Girona
1.12
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Valencia
Poisson
44%
Bookmaker
46%
Draw
Poisson
26%
Bookmaker
27%
Girona+4% edge
Poisson
30%
Bookmaker
26%
Most probable scores
1–1
12.5%
1–0
11.2%
2–1
8.9%
0–1
8.8%
2–0
7.9%
0–0
7.8%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Valencia and Girona have similar offensive and defensive stats, with Valencia slightly favored by the Poisson model at 43.9%. The bookmaker odds for Valencia's win offer slight value. I back Valencia to win at 1.95 with moderate confidence.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date25 Apr, 16:30
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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