BundesligaPrediction VfB Stuttgart — Bayer LeverkusenSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 15:30
VfB Stuttgart
Home
4th in table
3 — 1
✓ Won
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
6th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.10
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.99
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
VfB Stuttgart
2.15
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.99
goals/match
Bayer Leverkusen
1.83
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–1
7.9%
1–1
7.3%
2–2
7.2%
1–2
6.7%
3–1
5.7%
3–2
5.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The market fairly prices Stuttgart’s win at about 45%, but underestimates the offensive potential shaping an open game. The Poisson model aligns with this, giving Stuttgart a 45.8% win chance and predicting nearly 4 goals total, highlighting an overlooked over 2.5 goals opportunity at 75.7%. The verdict favors Stuttgart’s home advantage and attacking edge at 2.1 odds, with the main risk being Leverkusen managing a tight defensive outcome.
Match information
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