BundesligaPrediction VfB Stuttgart — Bayer LeverkusenSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 13:30
VfB Stuttgart
Home
4th in table
VS
Bayer Leverkusen
Away
6th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.10
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.94
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.89
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
VfB Stuttgart
2.15
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.99
goals/match
Bayer Leverkusen
1.83
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–1
7.9%
1–1
7.3%
2–2
7.2%
1–2
6.7%
3–1
5.7%
3–2
5.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The market fairly prices Stuttgart’s win at about 45%, but underestimates the offensive potential shaping an open game. The Poisson model aligns with this, giving Stuttgart a 45.8% win chance and predicting nearly 4 goals total, highlighting an overlooked over 2.5 goals opportunity at 75.7%. The verdict favors Stuttgart’s home advantage and attacking edge at 2.1 odds, with the main risk being Leverkusen managing a tight defensive outcome.
Match information
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