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Bundesliga

26 Apr, 15:30

Prediction VfB Stuttgart — Werder BremenSunday, 26 April 2026 at 15:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

VfB Stuttgart

Home

4th in table

1 — 1

✗ Lost

Werder Bremen

Away

15th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.65

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

4th

Ranking

15th

2.1g/m

Avg attack

1.2g/m

1.4ag/m

Avg defence

1.8ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

VfB Stuttgart

60%

Draw

24%

Werder Bremen

16%

Over 2.5 goals

1.46

68% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.68

37% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +8.4%

VfB Stuttgart

2.46

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.46

goals/match

Werder Bremen

1.00

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

VfB Stuttgart+9% edge

Poisson

69%

Bookmaker

60%

Draw-7% unfavourable

Poisson

17%

Bookmaker

24%

Werder Bremen

Poisson

13%

Bookmaker

16%

Most probable scores

2–1

9.5%

2–0

9.5%

3–1

7.8%

3–0

7.8%

1–1

7.7%

1–0

7.7%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Stuttgart’s strong offensive form and Brême’s defensive vulnerabilities create a clear edge for the home side. The Poisson model estimates a 69% chance of a Stuttgart win, significantly higher than the bookmakers’ 60.6%, indicating value. I back Stuttgart to win at 1.65, confident in their attacking superiority and motivation, with the main risk being an unlikely defensive masterclass from Brême.

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Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.65

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