BundesligaPrediction VfL Wolfsburg — Bayern MunichSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 16:30
VfL Wolfsburg
Home
17th in table
VS
Bayern Munich
Away
1st in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.62
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.97
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.87
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +18.1%VfL Wolfsburg
1.22
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
5.72
goals/match
Bayern Munich
4.50
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–4
6.8%
1–5
6.2%
1–3
6.1%
0–4
5.6%
0–5
5.0%
0–3
5.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
A highly offensive team averaging 3.6 goals per game faces a fragile defense conceding 2.1 goals, creating a clear tactical imbalance. The Poisson model gives a 79.9% chance of an away win, much higher than the bookmakers’ 61.7%, highlighting market inefficiency. Given the attacking firepower and situational pressure, betting on the away team at 1.62 is strongly supported.
Match information
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