BundesligaPrediction VfL Wolfsburg — Bayern MunichSaturday, 9 May 2026 at 18:30
VfL Wolfsburg
Home
17th in table
0 — 1
✓ Won
Bayern Munich
Away
1st in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.62
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +18.1%VfL Wolfsburg
1.22
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
5.72
goals/match
Bayern Munich
4.50
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–4
6.8%
1–5
6.2%
1–3
6.1%
0–4
5.6%
0–5
5.0%
0–3
5.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
A highly offensive team averaging 3.6 goals per game faces a fragile defense conceding 2.1 goals, creating a clear tactical imbalance. The Poisson model gives a 79.9% chance of an away win, much higher than the bookmakers’ 61.7%, highlighting market inefficiency. Given the attacking firepower and situational pressure, betting on the away team at 1.62 is strongly supported.
Match information
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