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LaLiga

2 May, 12:00

Prediction Villarreal — LevanteSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 12:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Villarreal vs Levante
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

Villarreal

Home

3rd in table

Pending

Levante

Away

19th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.76

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

3rd

Ranking

19th

1.8g/m

Avg attack

1.1g/m

1.2ag/m

Avg defence

1.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Villarreal

56%

Draw

23%

Levante

22%

Over 2.5 goals

1.65

61% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.45

41% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +13.7%

Villarreal

2.44

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.35

goals/match

Levante

0.92

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Villarreal+14% edge

Poisson

70%

Bookmaker

56%

Draw-6% unfavourable

Poisson

17%

Bookmaker

23%

Levante-10% unfavourable

Poisson

12%

Bookmaker

22%

Most probable scores

2–0

10.4%

2–1

9.5%

1–0

8.5%

3–0

8.4%

1–1

7.8%

3–1

7.7%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Villarreal's strong offensive and defensive stats position them as clear favorites against struggling Levante. The Poisson model assigns a 70.5% chance to Villarreal's win, well above the bookmakers' 56.8%, revealing value in the 1.76 odds. I back Villarreal to win due to their superior quality and title ambitions, with risk mainly from a low block and set-piece goal.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.76

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