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LaLiga

13 May, 19:00

Prediction Villarreal — SevillaWednesday, 13 May 2026 at 19:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Villarreal vs Sevilla
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

Villarreal

Home

3rd in table

Pending

Sevilla

Away

17th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

2.01

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

3rd

Ranking

17th

1.9g/m

Avg attack

1.2g/m

1.1ag/m

Avg defence

1.6ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Villarreal

48%

Draw

28%

Sevilla

25%

Over 2.5 goals

1.83

55% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.01

50% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +20.0%

Villarreal

2.55

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.58

goals/match

Sevilla

1.03

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Villarreal+22% edge

Poisson

70%

Bookmaker

48%

Draw-11% unfavourable

Poisson

17%

Bookmaker

28%

Sevilla-12% unfavourable

Poisson

13%

Bookmaker

25%

Most probable scores

2–1

9.3%

2–0

9.0%

3–1

7.9%

3–0

7.7%

1–1

7.3%

1–0

7.1%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Villarreal’s strong attack and solid defense contrast sharply with Sevilla’s defensive struggles and limited scoring. The Poisson model rates Villarreal's win probability at 69.7%, significantly higher than the 49.8% implied by bookmakers, highlighting market undervaluation. The verdict is a Villarreal victory at 2.01, driven by home advantage and form; the main risk remains Sevilla’s defensive resilience under pressure.

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Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 2.01

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