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Bundesliga

2 May, 15:30

Prediction Werder Bremen — AugsburgSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 15:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — Werder Bremen vs Augsburg
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Werder Bremen

Home

12th in table

1 — 3

✗ Lost

Augsburg

Away

9th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.88

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

12th

Ranking

9th

1.2g/m

Avg attack

1.3g/m

1.7ag/m

Avg defence

1.8ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Werder Bremen

49%

Draw

25%

Augsburg

26%

Over 2.5 goals

1.86

54% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.05

49% implied

∑Poisson Model

Werder Bremen

1.65

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.96

goals/match

Augsburg

1.31

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Werder Bremen-4% unfavourable

Poisson

45%

Bookmaker

49%

Draw

Poisson

24%

Bookmaker

25%

Augsburg+5% edge

Poisson

31%

Bookmaker

26%

Most probable scores

1–1

11.2%

2–1

9.2%

1–0

8.5%

1–2

7.4%

2–0

7.0%

0–1

6.8%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Werder Bremen, motivated by their league position, will push forward against Augsburg, who have less at stake, giving Bremen a tactical edge at home. The Poisson model shows a 45.3% probability for a home win, undervalued by bookmakers who price it at 51%, indicating a market inefficiency. The verdict favors a Werder victory at 1.88, with the main risk being a low-scoring draw; recommended stake is 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.88

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