Premier LeaguePrediction West Ham United — ArsenalSunday, 10 May 2026 at 15:30
West Ham United
Home
17th in table
VS
Arsenal
Away
1st in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.62
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.84
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +6.5%West Ham United
1.00
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.43
goals/match
Arsenal
2.42
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–2
9.6%
0–2
9.5%
1–1
7.9%
0–1
7.9%
1–3
7.7%
0–3
7.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The clash pits West Ham's defensive vulnerability, conceding 1.7 goals per match, against Arsenal's strong attack and best defensive record with 0.7 goals allowed. This sets a scenario where Arsenal's offensive firepower should dominate. The Poisson model calculates a 68.3% chance of Arsenal winning, higher than bookmakers' 61.7%, highlighting an undervaluation of Arsenal's scoring potential. The expected total goals over 2.5 at 66.2% supports a high-scoring encounter. I back Arsenal to win at 1.62 due to their attacking edge and defensive solidity. Main risk: West Ham's low block limiting Arsenal's chances. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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