Premier LeaguePrediction Wolverhampton Wanderers — FulhamSunday, 17 May 2026 at 16:00
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Home
20th in table
VS
Fulham
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.93
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.95
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.08
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.72
goals/match
Fulham
1.64
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.7%
0–1
10.8%
1–2
9.6%
0–2
8.9%
1–0
7.1%
0–0
6.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Fulham's superior attack contrasts sharply with Wolverhampton's leaky defense conceding 1.8 goals per game, making them vulnerable despite Fulham's modest scoring. The Poisson model gives Fulham a 50.4% win chance, slightly better than bookmaker odds at 49%, highlighting a market inefficiency. The expected 2.72 goals and over 2.5 goals probability of 51% indicate an open game favoring Fulham's attacking edge. I bet on Fulham to win at 1.93 due to Wolverhampton's defensive frailties and relegation pressure, with a main risk of a defensive Wolverhampton holding a draw.
Match information
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