Bundesliga18 Apr, 13:30
Prediction Bayer Leverkusen — AugsburgSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:30
Bayer Leverkusen
Home
2nd in table
VS
Pending
Augsburg
Away
12th in table
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.45
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
DLDWD
Form (5)
LLLLD
2nd
Ranking
12th
2.1g/m
Avg attack
1.0g/m
1.3ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Bayer Leverkusen
67%
Draw
18%
Augsburg
15%
Over 2.5 goals
2.01
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.89
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +6.7%Bayer Leverkusen
2.54
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.29
goals/match
Augsburg
0.75
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Bayer Leverkusen+9% edge
Poisson
76%
Bookmaker
67%
Draw
Poisson
15%
Bookmaker
18%
Augsburg-6% unfavourable
Poisson
9%
Bookmaker
15%
Most probable scores
2–0
12.0%
3–0
10.2%
1–0
9.5%
2–1
9.0%
3–1
7.6%
1–1
7.1%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen is strongly favored with a 75.7% win probability against Augsburg's 8.8%, supported by superior form and stats. The bookmaker odds undervalue Leverkusen's chances, making the home win a strong value bet.
Other predictions for this match
Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.
Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date18 Apr, 13:30
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
Share this prediction