Premier League18 Apr, 11:30
Prediction Brentford — FulhamSaturday, 18 April 2026 at 11:30
Brentford
Home
10th in table
VS
Pending
Fulham
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
✈️
Away Win
match result
Odds
3.39
best odds
Very low
Comparative Statistics
DLWWW
Form (5)
LWLLW
10th
Ranking
11th
1.7g/m
Avg attack
1.4g/m
1.5ag/m
Avg defence
1.4ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Brentford
46%
Draw
25%
Fulham
28%
Over 2.5 goals
1.81
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.17
46% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +3.8%Brentford
2.11
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.89
goals/match
Fulham
1.79
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Brentford
Poisson
46%
Bookmaker
46%
Draw-4% unfavourable
Poisson
21%
Bookmaker
25%
Fulham+5% edge
Poisson
33%
Bookmaker
28%
Most probable scores
2–1
8.1%
1–1
7.7%
2–2
7.2%
1–2
6.8%
3–1
5.7%
3–2
5.1%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Fulham has a 33.3% chance to win, higher than bookmakers' 29.5%, indicating value. Despite mixed recent form, the Poisson model supports an away win bet at good odds. Recommended confidence is high for this value bet.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date18 Apr, 11:30
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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