Serie A13 Apr, 18:45
Prediction Fiorentina — LazioMonday, 13 April 2026 at 18:45
Fiorentina
Home
6th in table
1 — 0
✓ Won
Lazio
Away
7th in table
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.35
best odds
Moderate
Comparative Statistics
WWLLW
Form (5)
LDDWD
6th
Ranking
7th
1.6g/m
Avg attack
1.6g/m
1.1ag/m
Avg defence
1.3ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Fiorentina
41%
Draw
31%
Lazio
28%
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.01
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +11.5%Fiorentina
1.83
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.93
goals/match
Lazio
1.11
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Fiorentina+13% edge
Poisson
54%
Bookmaker
41%
Draw-8% unfavourable
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
31%
Lazio-5% unfavourable
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
28%
Most probable scores
1–1
10.8%
2–1
9.8%
1–0
9.7%
2–0
8.9%
3–1
6.0%
1–2
6.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Fiorentina is favored to win with a 54.1% probability, significantly higher than bookmakers' 42.6%, making it a strong value bet. Their better recent form and home advantage support this prediction.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date13 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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