Ligue 125 Apr, 15:00
Prediction Lyon — AuxerreSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 15:00
Lyon
Home
6th in table
3 — 2
✓ Won
Auxerre
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.67
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
6th
Ranking
16th
1.5g/m
Avg attack
0.8g/m
1.0ag/m
Avg defence
1.3ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Lyon
57%
Draw
24%
Auxerre
18%
Over 2.5 goals
1.94
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.94
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
Lyon
1.59
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.17
goals/match
Auxerre
0.58
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Lyon+5% edge
Poisson
62%
Bookmaker
57%
Draw
Poisson
25%
Bookmaker
24%
Auxerre-5% unfavourable
Poisson
13%
Bookmaker
18%
Most probable scores
1–0
18.2%
2–0
14.4%
0–0
11.4%
1–1
10.5%
2–1
8.4%
3–0
7.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Lyon’s stronger attack and defense, combined with their European qualification ambitions, make them clear favorites. The Poisson model assigns a 62% win probability, higher than bookmakers’ 57%, indicating value. I back Lyon to win at 1.67, confident in their control, with the risk being an opportunistic Auxerre counterattack.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date25 Apr, 15:00
Analysis published19 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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