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LaLiga

21 Apr, 19:00

Prediction Mallorca — ValenciaTuesday, 21 April 2026 at 19:00

Name: Home Win Prediction — Mallorca vs Valencia
Rating: 3
Author: Footexo

Mallorca

Home

15th in table

1 — 1

✗ Lost

Valencia

Away

14th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

2.56

best odds

Moderate

Comparative Statistics

15th

Ranking

14th

1.3g/m

Avg attack

1.1g/m

1.5ag/m

Avg defence

1.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Mallorca

38%

Draw

31%

Valencia

32%

Over 2.5 goals

1.93

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.96

51% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +8.8%

Mallorca

1.69

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

2.94

goals/match

Valencia

1.24

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Mallorca+10% edge

Poisson

48%

Bookmaker

38%

Draw-7% unfavourable

Poisson

24%

Bookmaker

31%

Valencia-4% unfavourable

Poisson

28%

Bookmaker

32%

Most probable scores

1–1

11.2%

2–1

9.5%

1–0

9.0%

2–0

7.6%

1–2

6.9%

0–1

6.6%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Mallorca’s stronger offensive potential and home advantage position them favorably against Valencia, who struggle to score. The model shows a significant value bet with a 47.9% chance of Mallorca winning versus 39.1% implied by bookmakers, indicating a profitable edge. Confident in Mallorca’s motivation and tactical approach, the prediction is a home win at 2.56 odds.

Other predictions for this match

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

@ 1.89

High

✗

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 2.56

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