LaLiga21 Apr, 17:00
Prediction Mallorca — ValenciaTuesday, 21 April 2026 at 17:00
Mallorca
Home
VS
Pending
Valencia
Away
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.58
best odds
Moderate
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Mallorca
37%
Draw
30%
Valencia
32%
Over 2.5 goals
1.89
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +11.1%Mallorca
1.44
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.33
goals/match
Valencia
0.89
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Mallorca+13% edge
Poisson
50%
Bookmaker
37%
Draw
Poisson
27%
Bookmaker
30%
Valencia-9% unfavourable
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
32%
Most probable scores
1–0
14.0%
1–1
12.5%
2–0
10.1%
0–0
9.8%
2–1
9.0%
0–1
8.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Mallorca is favored to win at home with a 49.9% probability from the Poisson model, significantly higher than bookmakers' implied 38.8%, offering a value bet at 2.58 odds. The most likely score is 1-0, indicating a tight match but advantage Mallorca.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date21 Apr, 17:00
Analysis published14 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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