BundesligaPrediction RB Leipzig — Union BerlinFriday, 24 April 2026 at 20:30
RB Leipzig
Home
3rd in table
3 — 1
✓ Won
Union Berlin
Away
11th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.37
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.52
66% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.48
40% implied
∑Poisson Model
RB Leipzig
2.40
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.30
goals/match
Union Berlin
0.91
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
10.6%
2–1
9.6%
1–0
8.8%
3–0
8.4%
1–1
8.0%
3–1
7.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
RB Leipzig's strong attack and solid defense position them as clear favorites against a defensively vulnerable Union Berlin. The Poisson model's 70.1% win probability slightly exceeds bookmakers' odds, highlighting a value bet. Leipzig's tactical pressing and ability to exploit defensive gaps make a 2-0 or 2-1 win likely. I back Leipzig to win at 1.37, confident in their offensive edge; risk lies in an unexpectedly defensive Union Berlin setup.
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