LaLiga22 Apr, 20:00
Prediction Real Sociedad — GetafeWednesday, 22 April 2026 at 20:00
Real Sociedad
Home
7th in table
0 — 1
✗ Lost
Getafe
Away
8th in table
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.14
best odds
Moderate
Comparative Statistics
7th
Ranking
8th
1.6g/m
Avg attack
0.9g/m
1.5ag/m
Avg defence
1.0ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Real Sociedad
43%
Draw
32%
Getafe
25%
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.98
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +3.4%Real Sociedad
1.50
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.46
goals/match
Getafe
0.95
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Real Sociedad+7% edge
Poisson
50%
Bookmaker
43%
Draw-6% unfavourable
Poisson
26%
Bookmaker
32%
Getafe
Poisson
24%
Bookmaker
25%
Most probable scores
1–0
12.9%
1–1
12.3%
2–0
9.7%
2–1
9.2%
0–0
8.6%
0–1
8.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Real Sociedad's stronger attack and home advantage make a narrow win likely. The model shows a 50.1% chance versus bookmakers' 46.7%, indicating value. I back Real Sociedad to win at 2.14, with the main risk being a resilient defensive display from Getafe.
Other predictions for this match
Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.
Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date22 Apr, 20:00
Analysis published19 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
Share this prediction